Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Welcome Back, John

Yes, I know, I disappeared for a week. I've been fighting an unsuccessful battle with a singularly diabolical flu bug that's taken over my life. I'm still not all the way back, but I'm getting there.

Is Wang Chien Ming doing great, or what? The way he pitches reminds me most of Greg Maddux: Not blowing anybody away with speed - keep it low, in and out painting the corners, giving up some hits because he's throwing strikes, but not walks or homers. For him to be pitching as well as he has in New York, with that pressure, is pretty impressive.

During my long days in bed, I had a chance to do some reading and thinking. I break my fast with a longish essay below.

Nation of Rebels I

The classic counterculture critique of consumer society posits not only that the mass of people must be socialized to be cogs in a machine for the production of goods, but also as consumers for the purchase of those goods. This interpretation has largely dictated the countercultural response to the mass market even as the counterculture has risen to ascendancy in the culture as a whole. From Beats to Hippies, Punk to Grunge, the answer to this mass consumer conformist society has been non-conformism in style, and in the purchasing of goods. Departing from the herd and making a wild, non-mainstream gesture not only serves to fully realize oneself, we're told, it also serves as a protest against the machine that, repeated often enough, threatens to rock the machine (and the machine people) to its foundation.

Two Canadian professors, Joseph Heath and Andrew Potter, have written a book, "Nation of Rebels", that offers a tightly reasoned and well-researched argument that explains why after forty years of cultural success, the counterculture has failed to show the slightest evidence of undermining mass consumer culture. In fact, the values of the counterculture, they argue, have abetted the growth of the consumer culture, which would explain why the last few decades have simultaneously witnessed the explosion of counterculture values and the mass marketplace.

"The critique of mass society has been one of the most powerful forces driving consumerism for the past forty years.... It is rebellion, not conformity, that has for decades been the driving force of the marketplace."

The authors point out that studies have indeed shown there to be a correlation between wealth and happiness. People in rich countries are happier, in general, than people in poor countries. But this has only been found to be true up to a certain level of development, after which there is a leveling off. "The rule of thumb among economists who study the subject is that once GDP reaches about U.S. $10,000 per capita, further economic growth generates no gains in average happiness." Up to this point of development, gains in wealth generally are put toward addressing deficiencies in basics such as food, hygiene, shelter and clothing. After that, something else is going on:

"We constantly hear about how, as a society, we can no longer 'afford' health care or public education. But if we can't afford them now, how could we afford them thirty years ago, when the country produced only half as much wealth? Where did all the money go? The answer to this question is, in fact, quite straightforward: the money is being spent on private consumption goods. Yet, if this pattern of expenditure is not making us happier, why are we doing it?"

Nation of Rebels II

When people first begin to be able to take care of essential needs, they do indeed behave like conformist consumers. This is because cookie-cutter goods are the cheapest. Levitt houses built after the Second World War represented the first houses most of their owners had ever had a dream of purchasing. They may have been little boxes made of ticky-tacky, as the song goes, but they were affordable. The first mass-produced cars had no accessories either. But far from being conformist consumers, people who live in societies, like America, that are well past the subsistence stage of development, buy things that will confer distinction upon them. "Most people spend money not on things that help them fit in, but on things that allow them to stand out from the crowd. They spend their money on things that offer distinction. People buy what makes them feel superior."

About twenty years ago, I went through a phase of reading in the field of economics, a phase never likely to be repeated in this lifetime. The name Thorstein Veblin sticks in my mind not only because he was affiliated with the University of Chicago. Veblin became something of a hero to me upon my reading that, a bachelor, he would collect his dirty dishes in the bathtub until he had an enormous pile, then hose them all down in a single high energy session, in keeping with the theory of economies of scale. But that is not why he is a hero to the authors. There are other reasons to venerate him, it seems.

"First, it is worth noting that in developing countries, economic growth does an awful lot to promote overall happiness. It is only once a society has become quite wealthy that growth no longer delivers increased happiness. Second, there is still a fairly strong correlation between relative wealth and happiness, even in very rich societies.... In Veblen's view, the fundamental problem with the consumer society is not that our needs are artificial, but that the goods produced are valued less for their intrinsic properties than for their role as markers of relative success.... The problem is that while an increase in 'material' goods can generate increased happiness for everyone, status is an intrinsically zero-sum game. In order for one person to win, someone else must lose." After a certain point, that is, having stuff that your grandfather couldn't imagine having does not make you happier. Only having stuff your contemporaries don't have does the trick.

Nation of Rebels III

At this point, the authors introduce the idea of "positional goods." The house you buy in a fashionable downtown neighborhood may cost you $400,000 whereas the same house out in the country sells for $50,000. Most of what you pay for, then, is not for the materials that go into making the house, but the advantages –the convenience, and prestige –of living downtown. But not everybody can live downtown. "Living downtown" is a prestige position that by definition is only available to some. Ideas like "coolness" and "good taste" are also positional goods. If you get in on the ground floor of a phenomenon like microbrewed beers, you are part of a small, select circle of coolness. But as more and more people want to gain membership to that elite club, the cachet of being in the club gets diluted. Suddenly microbrews are in every grocery store and, while the brew may still taste good, the social distinction is largely lost and it becomes necessary to find a new source of distinction. This sense of being part of a select elite of cool is largely what the business of advertising is selling you on. The counterculture taught you that by wanting to be distinctive –a radical, cutting-edge individualist–you were undermining the system that wanted you to be a faceless cog. In fact, it is largely this restless need to be distinctive that feeds the monster.

An interesting example adduced by Heath and Potter is men's shirts. The archetypal pre- counterculture shirt was the standard white oxford button -down worn by armies of 1950's businessmen - a virtual uniform of conformity. Many men in the 50's only owned two shirts that they wore for the whole week, which was why they wore undershirts. By the 70's, nobody could wear the same shirt two days in a row without being outed. Everybody had to express that they were liberated from being a cog by wearing shirts with colorful prints. But those shirts cost more, and the more distinctive they are the more they cost. And you'd better have a full set in your closet for at least a week to avoid being looked down on. The effect of the sixties has not been to undermine the consumer society with an attack of distinctiveness and individuality. Precisely the opposite has happened.

This is why so many of the spin-offs from the counterculture revolution are on the high end of the price/ quality spectrum. Organic food may be especially good for you, and it certainly makes you feel special when you buy it, but it costs more than the mass produced stuff in the rest of the market. Fresh baked bread tastes better and has more crunchy cred than the mass produced stuff, but it will cost you. Here's a description of the coffee revolution brought about by the revolution, from "The Devil's Cup", by Stewart Lee Allen: "It is probably best understood as part of the 60's rebellion against overprocessed food. Think whole wheat bread equals whole bean coffee. So it's no surprise that the specialty coffee movement was born in the counterculture capital of Berkeley, California, when a gentleman named Alfred Peet opened Peet's Tea and Coffee. They specialized in fresh dark roast coffee and were so successful that his partners soon opened their own places, like Boston's Coffee Connection, Florida's Barney's, and, of course, Seattle's Starbuck's.” Tastes better than my mother's Maxwell House? Yes. More expensive, too. And once you get used to it, it's very difficult to go back. What it's not is a blow to consumer culture.

Nation of Rebels IV

How to relate all of this to my own life, and my decision to live in Taiwan? First, let's acknowledge, this is not a book about "them". A blue- state, tail-end-of-the-babyboom, counterculture-influenced consumer would peg me pretty well. I see plenty of myself in the behavior diagnosed in this book –from an original intention to live a simple, non-materialist lifestyle to an adult life in which, shall we say, money management is not exactly a strong point. A positive spin on this is that I have tastes that are more sophisticated than my parents.“Indian food!,”my mother marvels."You didn't learn about that in my home!" An invidious take would point out that, though I earn less than my parents, my consumption habits –whether in clothes, food, travel, music, whatever –reflect a disinclination to settle for the weekend by the lake when I could be trekking in Nepal. To my amazement, this turns out to be rather more expensive.

Another interesting angle from which to reflect on this book is the blue state/ red state divide. It's a source of deep satisfaction and vindication for blue –staters to point out that the blues on aggregate earn more than the reds. Moreover,while the blues contribute more in taxes, the reds receive more from the federal government. The flip side of this coin is that, consistent with the thesis of "Nation of Rebels", the children of the counterculture are more, not less, implicated in the cycle of earn and spend. I've often reflected that, if I were to return to the states, I would prefer to live in the south or west, albeit within driving distance of a blue oasis like Boulder or Austin. "Nation" clarifies for me that this is not illogical –it really is the case that the "positional goods" race to the bottom is farther along in blue states, and this is because of, not in spite of, the 60's "movement" legacy.

And moving to Taiwan? It's surely no coincidence that I've chosen to live in a country with low, red-state-like tax rates, but which still manages to adequately subsidize fundamental "social contract" sectors like health care and public education. Taiwan's GDP ($25,000 per capita) is exactly at the mid-point between the U.S.($40,000 per capita) and the figure cited as the transition from a subsistence to a "positional goods" economy –not a bad place to be. Of course, the very decision to live as a foreigner in a (mostly) ethnically monochrome place like Taiwan is symptomatic of the need to be "distinctive" the authors diagnose. When I spent my first six months here thirteen years ago, a running joke was "Get out of my Asian experience, whitey!" upon seeing a foreign face once a week or so. Of course, we also said that what we loved about Taiwan was that it didn't have the cloying "self-consciousness" of America. We wanted to be distinctive, that is, but we didn't want to live in a society where everybody else wanted to be distinctive. At some level of self-awareness, we knew where that ended up.

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Chen Planning A Move?

"Within the DPP, I don't think there's any more room to go," said Hsiao Bi-khim, a Democratic Progressive legislator from Taipei. "The party at large is not willing to compromise as President Chen is personally. He wants to make a legacy, but he is operating under very, very constrained and difficult circumstances." (I'm pretty sure the Post reporter got it wrong - she's from Tainan. JD)

Analysts and party leaders say Chen's shift reflects his calculation that independence is a lost cause. Taiwanese increasingly eschew the idea of confrontation with China, and the Bush administration has chastised Chen for provoking the Beijing government, raising doubts about whether the United States would come to the island's aid in a war. That leaves Chen with only one way of securing a significant place in history: reaching out to China.

Very interesting things are going on these days, but it's not at all easy to know what to make of it all. Until very recently, I didn't put much credence in the Chen as Nixon goes to China idea. It seemed to me China put on a big public relations show without much substance, so Chen would make an empty counter - gesture of magninimity. This article, though, makes it seem quite credible that Chen is about to do something big, and substantive. I also suspected the friction between Chen and Lee might be a bit of a show, but it begins to appear there is a genuine rift between the two. The idea that Chen would speak so openly about his resentments toward Lee dovetails with the theory that he is planning a major demarche that would alienate Lee anyway. Talks? On what terms? Probably some kind of semantical formulation that would allow each side to give its own interpretation. It's hard to believe Chen would budge on the issue of Taiwan's sovereignty.

Missing Link

Here is the link to the story I was responding to below, which I forgot to include.

Monday, May 09, 2005

Long Gone Green I

One thing that defines adolescent thought is the double-hitch pattern of, first, an epiphany in which it is revealed that the world is not as pure as one originally thought; followed by, two, unbridled indignation that this should be so and a radical, no compromises plan of action to restore the world to its proper, pure state. An opinion column in Saturday's Taipei Times by Michelle Wang exemplifies the limitations of this kind of thinking. She's identified as the deputy secretary-general of the far green Northern Taiwan Society, but if she's a day over sixteen, we're looking at a serious case of arrested development.

Chapter XIII: In Which Ms. Wong Discovers the Limitations of Freedom.

“We do enjoy freedom of communication, speech, publication, traveling and relocation, but we do not have the freedom to choose what we really want. Although we can cast our ballots to pick our national leader, legislators, and councilors, we cannot choose to write a Constitution of our own, decide the future of the nation through referendums or change the national title…..I really doubt if we have 100% freedom.”

Okay. Fair enough. Taiwan is a small country trying to carve out a place in the world in the face of an expansionist, authoritarian China, so its freedom to act is circumscribed by that reality. Right? Well, not exactly. It seems there is another culprit denying Taiwan "100% freedom". You guessed it:“Although the U.S. champions the causes of democracy, freedom and human rights, Washington has never given up its desire to direct Taiwan's future. Their logic is that the fate of Taiwan must be decided by the U.S. and that Taiwan has to follow Washington, D.C. In other words, the extent of freedom that the Taiwanese people are allowed to enjoy must be dictated by the U.S.”

Is it the policy of the Taipei Times to have fifteen year olds write op-ed columns? Let's be clear: if the U.S. did not provide a counterweight to China, Taiwan would today be a part of the PRC. Game over. No more Taiwan independence/democracy movement. Because certain actions taken by pro-independence advocates could drag the U.S. into a catastrophic war with China, the U.S. gets a significant say in whether those actions are taken. The U.S. does not "dictate" that this is so. It only gets a say because Taiwanese voters, wisely, take the U.S. position into account.
Prior to the legislative elections, A-bian was pushing policies that the U.S. felt were crossing some red lines clearly drawn by the Chinese, and the U.S. expressed its disapproval. This, then, became part of the mix in the pre-election debate. This is what the Taipei Times has been referring to recently in editorials as "the State Department's last-minute intervention in last December's elections." Freedom does not really mean what tenth-graders think it means. It does not mean "I can do what I want without consequences, or taking the position of others into account." Freedom means "I make my choices in a complicated, fallen world, and take responsibility for those choices." Taiwan has the freedom to isolate itself internationally. Some of the polities Ms. Wang most admires –Cuba; the Palestinian Authority – have taken stances that were ideologically or emotionally satisfying "pure", and brought the house down on their heads. Ms. Wang sees them as positive models, but Taiwan voters don't.

Far Gone Green II

Chapter XIV, in which Ms. Wang eats the apple, the scales fall from her eyes, and she discovers that pursuing their national interest is often a large component of a nation's foreign policy.

“We are all aware that for Washington, its attempt to protect Taiwan is driven not by the country's achievements in democratization and freedom but by the strategic values that Taiwan represents in the Asia-Pacific, by the interests it enjoys and the leading role it plays in the region.....In the eyes of politicians in Washington, freedom, democracy and human rights are just beautiful-sounding words.”

I am always amazed at the idea that, because a nation can be shown to be pursuing its interests, it therefore follows that it necessarily couldn't have a "values" component in its foreign policy. Why couldn't it include a balancing of both? The longest- running show in Foggy Bottom is the struggle for pre-eminence between the advocates of realpolitik –seeing nations as pieces on a chessboard– and those who would define American interests as more in line with supporting democracies wherever possible. Has it escaped Ms. Wang's notice that the high-priest of realpolitik, Henry Kissinger, is a full-time, pleated skirts and pom-poms cheerleader for the regime in Beijing? (Sorry for the image). Neo-cons like John Bolton and Paul Wolfowitz are the most stalwart defenders of Taiwan, but they are also the most despised by the kind of "national liberation" leftists Ms. Wang most identifies with. These (neo-cons) are the people who are tough on the dictatorship in Cuba; who support democratic, small and resource-poor Israel; who (controversially) saw it as in America's interests to expend blood and treasure to try to establish Iraq as a democratic country. Is there a nation in the world that does not pursue its interests? Taiwan should hold out in an isolationist stance until it finds one? This is what Andrew Sullivan has called, referring to the post - 9/11 left, "the combination of bitterness and not thinking."

Far Gone Green III

Chapter XV, in which Ms. Wang realizes that the U.S. is omnipotent and has limitless resources, but perversely declines to use these powers to build good and vanquish evil.

“Dictator Chiang Kai-shek's pro-Washington policy made it deliberately lenient about his atrocities curing the White Terror period.”That's not all: “Why do you (America) call for a war on terror but at the same time allow China, the world's greatest terrorist, to target 720 missiles at Taiwan and use oppressive terrorist tactics against political dissidents and Falun Gong practitioners?” But that's not all:“The strategy of the U.S. has always been two-faced. On the one hand, the U.S. supports regimes (even authoritarian ones) which are obedient to it, while on the other, it raises the banner of righteousness in seeking to obliterate hostile forces that are seeking national liberation.”

America does not have a“two-faced strategy". It has a foreign policy balanced between two poles stressing, respectively, realpolitik and promotion of democracy. "Allow China?" It's hard to see how the U.S. could get China to change these two policies quickly except through war. The U.S. doesn't want a war with China. Martial law era Taiwan? Iraq demonstrates just what a colossal expenditure of money,lives and diplomatic capital is involved in invading a state gone bad and trying to create a democratic culture almost from scratch. What the U.S. did do was make several overtures over the years to General Sun Li-ren about the possibilities for a coup. The time was never right, because Chiang's dictatorship was, in fact, quite efficient. Ultimately, Sun was purged for his contacts with the Americans. What was plausible in the way of change at the time was explored by the Americans and found not to be possible.

The Cold War involved a tilt toward the "pragmatic" in U.S. policy, but ultimately the "containment" strategy did manage to free the occupied peoples of Eastern Europe without a major, nuclear world war. Allying with regimes like Franco's Spain, Pinochet's Chile and Chiang's Taiwan represented a moral compromise, but in fact those regimes have subsequently been able to evolve into prosperous, democratic countries, while Russia, Cuba and Vietnam have not. What's striking about Ms. Wang's vision of how the U.S. should act is how sanguinary it is: War with China? Bring it on! Next week, no doubt, she'll be flying to Paris to wave a Palestinian flag and participate in a Peace March.

Far Gone Green IV

Chapter XVI, in which Ms. Wang discovers that small nations and large nations do not have parity; advocates extreme methods to rectify situation.

“Small nations and large nations do not have parity, and large nations will never pay attention to the goodwill or pleas of small nations….. The Palestinian struggle for statehood and Cuba's revolutionary movement may all have adopted extreme methods, but if this had not been done, would the U.S. have recognized their existence? Would they hear their voice demanding freedom? I really doubt it.”

So what, exactly, are we advocating here? Suicide bombings? A Munich-style terrorist attack at the Olympics? Have these tactics served the Palestinians well? Has it escaped Michelle's notice that China is cozying up to Venezuela and Cuba? China, at present, is not able to refine the oil pumped from Venezuela, but the governments of both countries are aching to rectify that situation. Has it escaped her notice that Venezuela's close ally, Cuba, is also being courted by China? (Raul Castro visited China in April to firm things up). They are allied with each other because they stand on the opposite side of a gaping values divide from the U.S. and Taiwan. Anti-American Europeans of the sort who vociferously criticized the Iraq War, celebrate the Palestinians and turn a tolerant eye toward Cuba –they're on the side of Taiwan's“national liberation movement,”right? Or was that Jacques Chirac leading the charge to sell arms to China?

Of course, this is an opinion column and doesn't represent the position of the Taipei Times, but it is fair to say that this column could not possibly have been printed in either of the other two English language papers. T-Times editorials vacillate between a (usually) pragmatic, A-bian type of Greenishness and the kind of moonbat anti-Americanism found in this column. It was the latter strand that had the Times editorial board dancing on the rooftops two days after the 9-11 attacks in their“Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind”editorial. There's a part of them that longs for the day when they can join in rallies in Rome and London:“Free the Palestinians! Support Taiwan independence and democracy! Yeah, Castro! Go, Chavez!”It's not going to happen. Those people are a lot more interested in anti- Americanism than they are in promoting democracy. Taiwanese Greens infatuated with this kind of Western bien-pensant thinking are letting themselves in for an endless round of disillusionments. Fact is, Taiwanese don't have the luxury of deluding themselves about which nation in the world it is that stands up for small, democratic nations in nasty neighborhoods.

Friday, May 06, 2005

China Fever III

"'Chairman Lien should not be too selfish,' said Central Standing Committee member Hou Tsai-feng.
'The KMT cultivated him for several decades. The KMT needs him to be responsible and not think of his own personal considerations.
'The KMT needs you,' she said. "


Some other interesting things are happening, adding to the mix. Lien Chan is allowing himself to be beseeched to continue in the role of KMT Chairman. It seems obvious to me that if he intended to retire gracefully and also planned to make a "personal" trip to China, he would have waitied until August, stepped down, and then made his trip. At what point does Ma Ying-jeou lose patience with this act from Lien? Ma is described as standing by expressionless as Lien was implored to stay on. The China Post article says“Ma,who was besieged by reporters after he left the meeting, said: 'I respect everyone's opinions,' before escaping down a fire exit.” I couldn't help but notice that it was Ma who escorted Soong to the airport for his trip. A potential alliance, or am I thinking too much?

On another front, as if on cue to remind Taiwanese of the difference between sweet words and substance, Taiwanese doctors were barred from participating in the Annual World Health Assembly despite the fact they had been promised seats by the organizers and despite a Chinese commitment to "help" Taiwan join. Of course, the only help Taiwan needs is for China to stop umremittingly opposing Taiwanese entrance to international organizations. "Though Chinese leaders recently claimed that they are willing to help Taiwan enter the international health body, 'On the eve of the Annual World Health Assembly, the question of whether or not they were sincere seems clear at this point,' said Peter Chang, of Taiwan's Department of Health.

Pan - Greens have been having a lot of fun parodying the reception Lien received at a mainland elementary school: (爺爺爺爺 你回來了 你終於回來了!) "Grandpa! Grandpa! You've come back! You've finally come back!" But the difficult fact is that the juxtaposition of Lien being greeting so emotionally in China, juxtaposed with Chen Shui-bian being feted in the Marshall Islands and Fiji, didn't work to the DPP's favor at all. At a DPP rally, much was made of the fact that Lien's name - Chan (戰) - means war: "Oppose War and Protect Taiwan!" Lien says he was given the name in the context of the Japanese invasion of China, to demonstrate his family's defiance of the invaders. At the same rally, VP Lu offered that Lien "has become the spokesman in Taiwan for the Chinese Communist Party." Ouch!

China Fever II

Each of the three“goodwill gestures”by the CCP is likely to run up on the rocks of the mutually contradictory definitions of what this thing here in Taiwan is. In the case of the gift of the pandas, if the gift is a domestic transfer (China's position) it should be no problem, but if it is an international transfer (as Taiwan maintains) it would contravene quite a few existing laws concerning the international transfer of rare and endangered animals. Taiwan is quite concerned about the increased scope for espionage if Chinese were allowed to travel here in large numbers, and the measure might be blocked on those grounds alone. But Taiwan maintains that both the tourism issue and the lowering of tariffs for selected fruits should be dealt with (internationally, essentially) in the WTO. China, of course, wants them handled “domestically.”

But while China Fever is unlikely to lead to any great breakthroughs with China, it is causing earthquakes in the domestic politics of Taiwan. Seeing Lien descending the steps onto the tarmac and being greeted so fulsomely puts one in mind of Anwar Sadat's breakthrough trip to Israel. But,unlike that trip, there's no meat here. The KMT is able to reap the harvest of exciting, historic-feeling imagery, but because they are not in power, they enjoy this imagery with none of the responsibility to deliver something substantive. The truth is, Taiwan Consciousness (台灣認同) is still very much a work in progress. People who have not clarified who they are are not deeply offended by Lien’s putting the welfare of his party before the welfare of Taiwan. A TVBS poll indicated that about 60% of the people interviewed did not feel Lien sold out Taiwan while in China.

A Taipei Times editorial tries to make the case that the unfavorable polls for the DPP are the result of a media still dominated by the KMT:“When has an opinion poll by a Taiwan news outlet ever been accurate? Which poll has not had its results predetermined by political concerns?” Yet, the same paper's Jewel Huang, in her news story, makes the dismal situation clear:“According to the latest poll by the DPP, voter support for the party has slumped by 7 points to about 33%. Support for the KMT, meanwhile, reached about 34%, and increase of 4 points.”The truth is, for the moment, the DPP is genuinely at a bit of a loss about how to deal with all this. They're caught in a pincer movement: legislators from the pro-independence wing are insisting on a meeting with Chen and calling him to account for swinging from his pre-legislative election stance for Name Rectification and Constitutional Reform to his present accomodationalist stance. Meanwhile, while refusing to meet Chen, the CCP is encouraging middle and lower-level members of the DPP to make their own trips to the mainland. It has also not gone unnoted that the lowering of tariffs on agricultural products is a bouquet thrown to farmers in the DPP heartland in the south.

China Fever

“China Fever”(中國熱) has descended on Taiwan, all agree, and my guess is it will have about the same shelf–life as those egg tarts that absolutely everybody had to eat a couple of years ago. What is clear is that Lien and the KMT have made a brilliant tactical move in going to China, but it's largely a triumph in the limited but not to be dismissed area of public relations. It's unlikely there will be much follow-up, because there has been no break-through on the central issue: The CCP insists that the DPP must, as a precondition for talks, renounce the plank in its constitution that calls for independence; Chen, after meeting with James Soong, agreed that he would not declare independence during his remaining term of office in return for the Chinese not using force to take the island. Not enough, China said. China insists that any talks be held under the“one-China”principle; Chen, after his talk with Soong, agreed not to change the present name of the sovereignty – The Republic of China – during this term of office. It was a largely semantical concession, but“Name Rectification”had been very important to the DPP prior to the disappointing Legislative elections. It was also a semantical concession that could be seized to give face to China on the “one – China” issue. Still not enough, said Beijing. Soong is hinting at the possibility of some sort of reinterpretation of terms that could be negotiated during his trip which began yesterday. Mostly, I think it's unlikely to work out because the differences between the two parties (DPP and CCP) are cardinal differences that are not negotiable. Maybe I'm wrong, and a face-saving verbal formulation will be found that would allow talks to start, but that opportunity hasn't been grasped in recent months. Why would it be now?

Thursday, May 05, 2005

International Incident

There's been a bit of international tension in my neighborhood recently, and I am ashamed to report that my own behavior has contributed substantially to the situation. You see, time management and organization have never been particular strong points of mine, and my temper is not always what it ought to be, either. As it happens, a couple of weeks ago, there I was again, sweating like Carlton Heston, late for a class, and trying to load a tape recorder and a large bag of books onto my scooter. Every time I thought I had it all set, the electric cord on the recorder would pop out from the little pocket in the bag where I'd secured it and trail along the ground. This is how it came about that I was to be found cursing profusely with balled fists - I swear I was cursing the cord, and quite clearly addressing myself to it and entirely oblivious to passersby. A very old man was passing by on his bike at that moment, of the sort known to have animated discussions with themselves, and hearing me cursing, started cursing me right back. Now, I know it was the wrong call, and I'm not a bit proud of myself, but I was, in fact, a bit deranged at that moment myself. So I turned and replied with a volley of the most imaginative and colorful invective I could think of. Well, he may have been eighty-five, but there was no quit in this old coot. He didn't exactly stop his bike to curse me back, but since he was going about two miles an hour, he had plenty of time to give me holy bloody hell as he was going by. I think we both felt better at the end of the exchange.

Problem is, I hadn't recognized him as a neighborhood regular (all the old people love me - they do!), but I am now aware that he comes down this street on a rather regular basis. I am now resigned to my fate - every couple of days, he sees me , and I get dressed down thoroughly. I've quite regained my composure, and I just smile and nod to him, but he is not to be appeased. I'm not even sure exactly what language I'm being cursed in, to tell the truth. It may be that he is a mainlander calling me to account for historical injustices perpetrated by my people. (反對八國聯軍殖民主義!) "Resist Eight Nation Alliance Colonialism! Up yours, tape recorder boy!)

I would just like to say publicly to this venerable and terribly misunderstood old gentleman, if he should happen to be a reader of this blog, that I acknowledge my error, and that I have acted in a gravely insulting and inappropriate fashion. As to the unpleasantness regarding the burning and sacking of the Imperial Summer Palace some one hundred and fifty years ago, which I have no doubt you witnessed personally, I can only say on behalf of my nation that what we did was wrong, and it was bad - bad, bad, very bad. How would we like it if you came along and burned down Camp David? We'd be angry, right? Probably cussin' and fightin' angry, right into our spry and vinegary golden years. Let me therefore say, on behalf of the entire abjectly apologetic North American continent, that we will never do it again, and we ask, and will ask forever after, for your forgiveness.

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Great Gaming the Coming Years

But to get China looking north to Asia for oil supplies, perhaps we should try to encourage oil pipelines throughPakistan to Iran and through Central Asia to the Caspian Sea region. If China gets oil through this route, paying for a navy with no task other than taking Taiwan may not make as much sense as it did when the navy was needed for oil supply security too. This could suck China into Asia and perhaps make the Europeans nervous enough about the Chinese coming up a new silk road that Europe will feel they need America again as an ally.


The Dignified Rant has an excellent post advocating the commencement of a "Great Game" approach to China. Chinese nationalists, of course, have long accused America of implementing a containment strategy, but, as Brian makes clear,the measures to date have been more defensive than proactive in nature. The centrality of the oil resource is a thread running through all of these considerations. It seems perfectly mad that China would be building a blue-water navy thinking that they would be able to secure the entire oil route from the Middle East, but it appears that is precisely what is going on. Needless to say, the best way to keep that line secure would be to commit to being a good citizen in the international order that is already in place to secure those supplies to countries like Japan and Korea. Only if they were planning attacks on their neighbors would that not be an adequate strategy.

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Rambling Reflections

"'He was so poised out there, especially here at the stadium,' Rodriguez said. 'It was a nice lift, and hopefully it can bring some energy here for a while.'
Torre said it was the best start by a rookie for the Yankees since he took over as manager in 1996."



Tainan native Wang Jian Ming turned in a quality start, as the whole world knows by now. This is exciting stuff for people who love both Taiwan and baseball (which covers a lot of people, let me tell you). My fourth grade student, Chris Lin, came in with a large poster of Wang from The Apple Daily. As soon as I saw it, I wanted one. My first impulse, needless to say, was to push him to the floor and take his, 'cause I'm bigger than him, but the latest pedagogical studies frown on that teaching methodology and I always try to stay up to date. So after class I went to seven- eleven (or "seven", as it's known here, for the same general reason that the eustachian tube is referred to as the e-tube by Taiwan ENTs). Strange to say, it turns out you can't get Apple Daily at convenience stores after about two or three in the afternoon. The clerks said it's that way every day. All the other papers are there on the shelves and have remainders at the end of the day, but with Apple, if you don't get it in the morning, you ain't getting it, brutha. I don't know anything about it, but they obviously have a completely different marketing strategy from the other papers. I'm told all the other papers are cheaper to have delivered to your house than to buy in the store, but Apple is cheaper in the store. It's this thick doorstop of a paper, filled with an enormous quantity of some of the best fiction being written on the island, and at ten dollars, it's two thirds the price of the English-language papers. They know how to sell papers, though.

Digressing... The above-mentioned Chris is one of two students in a "group class" I teach six hours a week. We have named the class "The Flying Donkeys." I have decided, after protracted and anguished deliberation, to post the Flying Donkeys Class Song. The lyrics were a collaboration between myself and Chris Lin. The melody is something dredged from deep in my sub-conscious - maybe the Carolina Fight Song - I'm not sure. It goes something like this:

Flying Donkeys you are so good
Crazy but brave
Go Go Go Go
On your journey
Not one is a slave

huzza! huzza! huzza! huzza! huzza!

Onward and upward
Long-eared heroes
Into the clouds of white
Flying Donkeys speak good English
And they never bite!
(repeat first verse)

There it is. Sung every day, at the top of the class, at my students' insistence. They will go far.

Sunday, May 01, 2005

The Baby Name Wizard

"'Lillie' noted that in practice, the long-and-lacy often turns into the short-and-sassy: 'Melissa gets called Mel, Jessica becomes Jess, Samantha is Sam and Alexandra is Alex. Often these stick enough to become the person's day-to-day name.' 'Melissa' agreed with that point, but added 'I also see a bit of a trend towards using the full versions of names.'
Nicknames can definitely turn a name's style inside out -- there's a world of difference between Gertrude and Trudy. And sure enough, many parents today are rejecting traditional nicknames. (See 'The new formality.') But some parents are taking advantage of the style contrast to let them have it both ways. Alexandra/Alex is sumptuous and boyish. You get two names in one, which part of the name's soaring appeal."



Robert Johanson, East Rift Valley Potentate, and Grand Poobah of Hualien, recommends this site, The Baby Name Wizard. Names gaining rapidly in popularity, apparently, include Aidan, Caleb, Griffin, Mackenzie and Nadia. Names that have seen better days: Betty, Deborah, Pearl and Bill. The creator, Laura Wattenberg, has graphed hundreds of names, charting their relative fortunes over the decades. There's also a cool blog, quoted above.

Gate of Heavenly Peace I

"My students keep asking me, 'What should we do next? What can we accomplish?' I feel so sad, because how can I tell them that what we are actually hoping for is bloodshed, the moment when the government is ready to butcher the people brazenly? Only when the Square is awash with blood will the people of China open their eyes. Only then will they really be united. But how can I explain any of this to my fellow students?"
Chai Ling, Tian an men student leader, 1989


Ten years late (always the slow adopter!) I finally had an opportunity to see the Tian an men massacre documentary by Carma Hinton and Richard Gordon,“The Gate of Heavenly Peace.” Strange to say, watching the footage of the student leaders evoked feelings similar to when I watched the 1965 Dylan documentary “Don't Look Back.” In that case, I found myself cringing at the posing of 25 year old Joan and Bob, identifying instead with Dylan's indulgent and canny manager Albert Grossman. “Heavenly Peace”evoked similar feelings, except with the fortunes of 1.2 billion people hanging in the balance. What the movie (cross-referenced with Ian Buruma's portraits in “Bad Elements") clearly documents is that these were callow kids in way over their heads. Their age is the chief mitigating factor in a case where they did a lot more damage than good.

The above quotation from self-appointed commander-in-chief Chai Ling is the most incriminating. In a pattern familiar from the French Revolution and countless others, the moderates who wanted to disburse after having achieved a few finite but substantive goals, were always at a disadvantage relative to the radicals with a bloodbath/ uprising/ regime change agenda. Here is Chai Ling, in an interview, by turns going utterly to pieces and fantasizing about being commander-in-chief of a rebellion. Here's Wu'er Kaixi, meeting China's leaders in the midst of a hunger strike, sitting with a sullen adolescent slouch as Li Peng appears far more serious and reasonable. Wu'er, in pajamas, living out a countercultural fantasy, shakes his finger in Li's face and tells him “You just don't get it, do you?” The meeting couldn't have gone better for Li. You can see him turn to the other leaders, as if to say, “You can see how it is. What else can we do?” At one point, several of China's most respected writers and thinkers come to the square to implore the students to take their gains and go home. Wu'er dismisses them: What have they ever done, these intellectuals? We've started a revolution; led a million people in singing the Internationale in Tian an men!.

Gate of Heavenly Peace II

Of course what they had“done”was represented by an accumulation of learning and experience of living, which was precisely what the students so manifestly lacked. Watching the documentary, I kept thinking that the students were struggling with precisely the kinds of issues debated in the Federalist Papers, issues that need to be thought through after a commitment to democracy is made. The movie effectively makes the point that, having created a democracy movement, the students quickly fell into patterns of behavior that reflected the same mistakes made by previous Chinese would-be rulers. It would be surprising if they hadn't. It's not as if they had access to the kinds of information that would have better equipped them for what they were trying to do. The middle-aged intellectuals were able to warn them about the nature of the Chinese state, but still would have been limited in advising them on how to create real democratic structures within their movement.

That's why Taiwan's democracy is so important, and so dangerous for the authoritarians. Taiwan is providing a living civics lesson to a generation of Taiwanese, and potentially, to Chinese as well. Taiwan demonstrates that there is nothing in Chinese culture that is incompatible with democracy – democracy needs to be learned, and adapted to the culture, is all. Democratic countries have only emerged in the last two hundred plus years. It has been an unprecedented, and new, idea everywhere it has been tried, whether in the American colonies, India or Japan. The argument is made that Chinese is a culture that values the interests of the group over the individual, and therefore democracy is inappropriate for Chinese. Japan and Korea, also Asian cultures that emphasize consensus, have already provided eloquent rebuttals to this idea – but for Chinese authoritarians, the example of Taiwan is especially threatening. Chinese authoritarian doctrine is a closed system , and Taiwan breaks the loop: Taiwan is culturally Chinese, therefore it belongs to China; democracy and Chinese culture are congenitally incompatible; therefore, Taiwan cannot be a democracy, and if it is, it must be made to cease being so, by force if necessary. What Taiwan promises is that the next time the Communist leadership has to sit down with Chinese democracy advocates, it won't be a kid posing for an MTV video, but someone like Chen Shui Bian or Hsieh Chang Ting- serious, smart people, sitting up in their chairs and wearing suits - people who have done democracy. That's a long way from 1989.